Who cares if Gloria is president after 2010?
Written on Wednesday, August 13th, 2008 at 3:35 pm | by benign0I just have to wonder, given the whole debate about Charter Change that has now crept into the picture, and the chatter of speculation about how this is really all about extending President Gloria’s term beyond 2010…
How big a factor is a President, really in terms of influencing the course of progress (or lack of it) in the Philippines?
I mean, really.
First of all, I throw out this question to the FV community. Is there some kind of evidence or at least some kind of logical construct that convincingly describes some kind of causal relationship between (A) the character or even identity of the President of the Philippines and (B) the prospects of the Philippines achieving some semblance of sustainable prosperity?
Can we, infer from a value of A, what the probability distribution for a set of values of B might be?
For example, what many people claim to be a certainty can be expressed like this (using the conventions I loosely spelled out above):
IF A = GMA and Year > 2010,
THEN B = Disaster for the Philippines
or, for that matter;
IF A is NOT equal to GMA and Year > 2010,
THEN B = Prosperity for the Philippines
My question is this: Is there an A=>B relationship?
Think for a minute of the implications of the answer to this question. Because, if there is none, if there is no convincing answer to this question, or if a debate about whether such a relationship between A and B exists gets drawn out over comments ad infinitum and never gets resolved convincingly, it brings to light this SIMPLE question:
WHO CARES IF GLORIA ARROYO IS STILL LEADER OF THE FILIPINO PEOPLE AFTER 2010?
If we are not able to prove that our prospects for prosperity are a function of who is sitting in Malacanang, then why bother even wasting precious bandwidth on any discussion about whether Gloria is out to extend her term or not?
Second, the only recent significant and fundamental change in the nature of Philippine politics happened in 1986. In that year, we saw a transition from totalitarian governance to a flawed but nevertheless democratic form of governance.
But beyond politics what has really changed about the Philippines and its people? Is the nature of our society at the very core DIFFERENT? Is the collective psyche of Filipinos in 1972 different from that of 2008 Pinoys?
For argument’s sake, let’s cite a handful of factors that I (in my simplistic world) think is indicative of how well positioned our society is in terms of its prospects of someday becoming a truly free, open, and prosperous society:
- Population
- Secularism
- Critical thought
- Foresight
The above four I believe are the key indicators of our prospects for prosperity. Have these changed over the last thirty years? For a bit of perspective, count also how many presidents (and presumably how many different characters and their approaches to governance) have sat in Malacanang?
Juxtapose that variety of politicians against the ominous constantness and unmoving consistency of those four key indicators I listed above. And be afraid. For the case for a safe bet that the Philippines will be the same Philippines in 30 years, regardless of WHO is president lies in a lucid regard for this reality.
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As per your criteria for becoming a ‘truly free, open, and prosperous society’, this post fails in the ‘critical thought’ and ‘foresight’ aspects.
Who cares if Gloria is president after 2010?…
“I just have to wonder, given the whole debate about Charter Change that has now crept into the picture, and the chatter of speculation about how this is really all about extending President Gloria’s term beyond 2010…”…
The simple matter is that Gloria-beyond-2010 (2010 being her constitutionally-mandated expiry date) means a potential backward step into totalitarianism, and that is what most Filipinos in the Philippines (heck, including me!) is hesitant to go into.
Also, if she doesn’t step down on 2010 she will not lose her immunity from suit, and that means the remotest chance we will ever be able to file criminal cases against her for the various infractions she is accused of. To fail in trying Gloria for the crimes she is accused of committing will be a failure of democracy, and that will further erode and weaken the already trampled-upon institutions that give our country the semblance of a democratic republic.
Whatever you say, cvj. I might even believe you if you are able to articulate specifically why you think so.
Jon, you still don’t answer the simple question though:
Is there evidence of a causal relationship between WHO sits in Malacanang, and the probability that the Philippines will prosper in the next 30 years?
I need to chew on the post a bit more sir, but my impulse reaction would be that the question almost begs the answer and we can take our pick: civil war, despondency, partition, and countless more Filipinos voting with their feet to join the Filipino diaspora.
Love you post, kapatid. It’s this type of thread-starter that sets FV apart, bro.
@Benign0, I think Jon answers it. Because it will not be the will of the people. As Jon says, it moves us backwards. If we truly want to move forward towards prosperity, there must be accountability to the people.
A people that has trust in government is more willing to sacrifice for the good of that nation. Self sacrifice must be the characteristic for our leaders. They are the ones who make the big decisions.
If they wish our nation to prosper, issues such as,
1. Secularism
2. Population
3. …..
Will never be addressed properly, because those who are in power do not have the incentive. Their incentive is based on power struggles, such as the one we see today.
But, in a simple question, there can also be a simple answer…
Millions of Filipinos care if Gloria stays beyond 2010.
If we are in need of a leader, that leader must be selfless and truly caring for her people. The agenda for moving forward is not with this administration, we have seen it in the deals that she has made with China, the people she has put in the top positions (such as Neri)….
But the relationship is there Benign0, with this specific president. She has had all the opportunities since 2001. We cannot foresee the future, but we can judge for ourselves what has happened during Gloria’s Administration.
Gloria beyond 2010 keeps us in the status quo. And the status quo certainly is not prospering.
The argument you propose, invariably leads to a conclusion that if the answer to your question is that “there is no causal relationship”, then it can thus be said that anyone can be president and the outcome will be the same. Which is certainly a ludicrous statement to make.
I can see your point, but the premise seems to be flawed.
Your point, and I hope I get this right, is that the people make the nation, not the president. And that it is the people who ultimately hold the key to our own prosperity.
But even that statement can lead us to posit that what if the decision to have another president other than Gloria, a decision made by the people, who ultimately hold the key to their own prosperity, is made by that populace? Doesn’t that also mean that indeed the decision to not have Gloria extend her presidency or rule, is a decision towards prosperity?
Indeed, much food for thought, but I have to disagree that keeping Gloria beyond 2010 will not matter. My decision and conclusion that led me to that statement has been made in this comment.
I doubt it Benign0, but thanks for confirming what i said previously over at Manolo’s.
I have to agree with Ding, however, this is a simple, yet excellent thought provoking question… going into a discussion like this, an open mind indeed does need to be embraced..
Thanks Nick/Ding. I can’t claim to know the answer myself (which is why I posed it). I think the really important point you two highlight is that we need to think (in contrast with posting non-added-value one-liners…
).
As to your simple answer, though…
… I wasn’t really asking how many people cared. Obviously many do. Maybe the title of my post was misleading as it was meant to be a rhetorical question.
What I am in essence asking is if there is a causal relationship between the person sitting in Malacanang and the prospects for prosperity of the Philippines.
Let’s not however assume that what is good for the society or what may lead to its prosperity is necessary in line with what the people will.
This is a fallacy that was propagated and an idea that survives to the detriment of our society (something that the ascent of Erap to power proved — and may prove yet again). Obviously it survived careful scrutiny (maybe because of this lack of thinking I keep referring to).
The above is one of the most complex parts of your previous comment, Nick, and may take me a bit of time to take a part. But just off the top of my head, it seems this will-of-the-people fallacy is entrenced in that passage above.
I’ll mull over it further and come back.
As filipinos its our duly constituted rights to guard our Democracy. If Arroyo would probably stay in power, in that context we lost our “Democracy” !!!
It is the role of the Filipinos from “Luzon, Visayas & Mindanao” to be united & Solidified in making a stand in “No no… to Arroyo & No to charter change”!!!! Constitutional amendment is a threat for us to lost our freedom……
Population as being cited as problem of the country could not warrant that total prosperity could be possible at all cause.
I think, in any possibilities the problem in the Philippine Republic is the leaders who lead the people. In this present administration the Filipinos lost already the trust towards the Arroyo administration. So what’s the use of buying the idea regarding “Arroyo still in 2010″!!!
Filipino cares, No to cha-cha, no to Arroyo in 2010!!!!!!!!!
Filipinos are vigilant now, No way to cha-cha!!!!
The converse truth to your statement goes like this:
A = GMA as President now and beyond 2010
B = Prosperity for the Philippines
A => B then ~B => ~A
Since the Philippines has not progressed, then there should be no term extension for GMA. People do care.
But beyond progress and prosperity, changes especially elections have the cleansing effect on our political institutions. The vote validate or reject the leadership of the body politic.
We probably will make the same mistake again, sure. But its still the people’s right.
Filipinos seem to have been brainwashed into thinking that “democracy” as we know it now is the only acceptable system.
Benj, on the contrary, i think many in the Filipino middle class are allergic to democracy because they don’t think the masa are their equals, and would be comfortable with a dictatorship as long as the dictator is discreet in disposing of the bodies.
Gloria Arroyo and our traditional politicians (YOUNG and OLD) have performed a useful function. They have held a mirror up to our faces and showed us what kind of people we are. As our hero Dr. Jose Rizal put it so bluntly : ‘Tal pueblo, tal gobierno’.” (As the people are, so is their government). Have we become a nation of one tyrant and 80 million cowards? The EQualizer
Benign0,
You are asking if there is a cause-and-effect relationship between the character or identity of the president (the cause) and prosperity in the Philippines (namely the effect).
Well, can a butterfly flap its wings in Beijing and cause a typhoon in Manila? Serious mathematicians believe the answer is yes, but of course “prosperity in the Philippines” is a rather much larger and ill defined set of phenomena, like the weather.
Perhaps if we identified certain very definite causes of the lack of prosperity the question would be sharpened.
Take the insurgencies, perhaps if we had another Magsaysay, the answer would indubitably be YES, since prosperity would surely increase if the CPP NPA and the MILF were to lay down their arms and open up campaign offices in Manila for Joma to run for President and Eid Kabbalu for ARMM dog catcher. Or something.
There is to my mind no real secret to growing the economy and increasing prosperity. It is like growing a plant, you have to remove the weeds and other obstacles, and nature takes care of the rest. Without those multiple insurgencies things would just “naturally” improved without us really trying very hard.
How has GMA handled the peace and order situation and the matter of the insurgencies.
Since the people don’t trust her and are dissatisfied with her (for which there IS statistical evidence) then it follows she probably cannot lead them or inspire them and has not solved the problem of the insurgencies for lack of political capital. instead she plays games with MOAs and Constitutions as if they were her playthings and underwear.
Well you know my answer to your question. it does matter if she stays beyond 2010.
Lucky this is really a moot and academic question since she is simply not allowed to stay beyond 2010, unless…
To answer your question if Filipinos “need government,” government being gloria/presidency— no. Filipinos have been doing it for years. they’ve been /surviving/. Filipinos have been making their own way to survive. We need only look at our diaspora for that.
i used the word survive a lot because surviving is not living. it isn’t enough going forward into the future. The challenges of the future is WAY beyond what our people can imagine today. Some people are even amazed by the simplest of electronic gadget and our collective tomorrows will be one where everyone must be an Alpha Geek.
what peeves people the most i think is that government=leaders=politician-class can DO so much better. I personally don’t think people mind so much that they pocket a bit— if only those people do their job. their job being OUR/this country’s interest first above all others.
i’ve blogged about this before— the people can’t vote anybody new because the system prevents it. no political party mechanism to “carry” a candidate without money to power. hence the insider’s game is forever an exclusive club. Given how our society’s made up, I think having such a political mechanism would be an uphill battle to make.
this is why lately, I keep on insisting that to WIN, to CHANGE the game isn’t so much anymore if the PEOPLE are willing or hoping— it is because the guys running the HELM need to get their act together.
Anybody who has had dealings with politicians and government officials know this. It is a different ball game entirely. It has its own language. I don’t mean to sound elitist but that’s exactly it. The insider’s game has got to be where the mechanism gets upgraded.
As for your question regarding if people care if Gloria stays beyond 2010— i can not answer for anyone other than myself: the answer is one definite no.
This nation has serious challenges that it must face. we don’t need those with their hand on the helm playing games. We need serious people whose first interest is working for us.
A day with Gloria running the show beyond her Constitutionally mandated expiration date IS asking way too much.
Heck, Gloria’s like leaving milk on the table during a very warm day. by the end of it, the milk’s turned sour. the garbage man will only pick it up when the clock strikes 2010. Hopefully the garbage man wouldn’t forget or wouldn’t be on strike that day.
DJB,
We are one in our stand. It really matters if she stays beyond her term. Perhaps if …….., then she will find her Agony at all cause…….
Prosperity in this country can be attributed in a good Governance.
In the context of Mindanao “Peace & Development” it will never finally come. Mindanao comprises the tri-people perception the “Lumads, Muslims & Christians” that has differences in ideologies, in consequence Development is hampered.
If Good Governance is serve by the leaders of the Government then Mindanao can find its total justification……..
The MILF in the issue of MOA-AD that lead to conflict & distruction in Mindanao can build injustices towards the “Lumads & Christians”.
Cont: What is vital in the problem of Mindanao is Sencirity among both party. On the part of the Government it is a must to foster good governance.
Conflict in Mindanao is present it can never be eradicated but it will pave the way towards justice if the Government has an advocacy of Good Governance!!!!
[…] I do not see any compelling reasons now for a shift from a presidential to a parliamentary form of government as regards the obligation of the state to provide the people a decent life with all the social services they are entitled to. If there is “the will to develop” on the part of the powers-that-be, the economic elites in particular, the country will develop regardless of the form of the government [shades of benignOism?]. […]
It has several forms of Government. I am not asserting that Democracy is the best form of Government, hence it has advantages and disadvantages too. If we will reflect the Philippine History, Filipinos regained their lost freedom, they were patriotic, their heroic deeds justify for their devotion to one’s country.
Certainly, Everything really matters towards the leaders who will lead the country……. Prosperity could not be measured in what form of Government we will have.
Thus, Federalism is not the answer in the clamour of the Mindanoans it will worsen only the situation.
As a Filipino & as a masa who serves to be majority in this country, I do still value “Democracy” in this and I am entitled to my own opinion.
in this country, I mean.
who cares? GMA’s going to be prime minister, not president LOL
You’re right Jester.
President or Prime Minister, it’s the same ass..ole, anyway.
Jester, Patricio,
Thanks for injecting the humor. This is what keeps all of us sane in these seemingly insane times.
why shouldn’t “they” care, benigno? think how boring life would be for these people without a “gloria” to kick around, and blame for every bad thing that happens in the county. who else would be the target of crap slinging when a tragedy occurs, prices of food go up, terrorists in mindanao strike, rebels go on rampage, philippines gets zero medal in the olympic games or when some crooks in the government do what they do best - steal public funds or property?
everybody needs “gloria”. none of the wannabees are worth even the hatred and jealousy heaped upon her. they are all unremarkable lightweights.
Atty. Ben,
Are you actually suggesting po that given the “unremarkable lightweights” positioning to succeed Mrs. Arroyo so they in turn can inherit the “hatred and jealously heaped upon GMA”, that she should go ahead and stay in office after 2010?
There is nothing any Filipino would want, I think, than to respect any sitting president.
But shouldn’t that respect be earned, along with the genuine political mandate from elections which were not rigged (as confirmed by the PNP Special Action troops who stole the election returns from the Battasan and replaced them with manufactured documents)?
benign0,
You know that I know the answer, and it is unfortunate that it takes generations to change that kind of mentality.
I don’t even expect Filipinos to get it when it comes to Filipinos in my lifetime.
Nick, I thought a bit more about what you said; i.e.,
I think the weak link here is the implied connection between (x) the assertion that the people “ultimately hold the key to their own prosperity” and (Y) the act of selecting “another president other than Gloria”.
You imply that people presumably select a president (i.e., Y) on the basis of a clear or rational understanding of how this decision ties in to factors that affect their aspirations to prosper (i.e., X).
That argument is built on top of what the answer would have been to my original question, which is whether there is a causal relationship between A and B, specifically…
… and since that question hasn’t been resolved yet at the time you posited that X=>Y relationship, then we cannot assume that X=>Y is true or can even be posited in the first place.
DJB, you make a good point. Maybe there is a relationship but it is more akin to the Butterfly Effect, which calls up a whole different branch of logic/mathematics known as chaos theory (the study of phenomena that is governed by a a large number of variables).
But that highlights the point I am trying to make. Just as it is futile to study the behaviour of butterflies in the hope of forecasting tornados, I think it is also futile to be spending an unreasonable amount of energy on whether Gloria will continue to be the leader of the Filipino people beyond 2010 and making assertions of how this will impact on our future fortunes (or lack of it).
Which brings to light what Bencard and Jon attempt to describe tounge-in-cheek: That maybe this whole focus on Gloria is just a manifestation of an actual lack of any insight — beyond personality politics — on how to actually improve the future fortunes of the Philippines.
When an issue or challenge becomes too formidable for the collective intellect, the most logical option (or maybe even the only option), is to put up and attack a strawman.
Look back and recall previous events where people were so similarly (or even more intensely) convinced that the future looked bright after a politician was removed from Malacanang; e.g., the ouster of Marcos, and the ouster of Erap. In both instances, there was so much euphoria and optimism. Yet, guess what: as it turns out, nothing changed.
And here we are again, looking yet again to a change of leadership as the proverbial silver bullet.
I am not saying that Gloria should not go. The question I am posing is whether her departure or retention really matters in the bigger scheme of our ability to prosper in the next thirty years, say.
What Pinoys should be truly afraid of is a post-2010 scenario where Gloria is no longer president. Because in such a scenario, the only person or entity that Pinoys have become addicted to blaming their troubles on will be gone.
ding, with all due respect to all the wannabees, i would be blunt. i don’t think anyone of them has the strength and competence that could equal gma’s to meet our contry’s complex and countless problems. more than one we can “respect”, we need an effective, result-oriented, pragmatic, and self-assured president, not an easy prey to manipulative predators that infest our country’s officialdom. words such as respect, character, generous, friendly, easy-going, maka-masa, etc., are subjective considerations. one man’s angel is another one’s devil. subjective tests of presidential qualities - which is what we mostly rely on as a people in choosing our leaders, must end.
as i told mlq3 sometime ago, in answer to a question in his blog, we don’t need a president we can LOVE, we need one who can LEAD us.
Bencard,
Unfortunately it seems that there isn’t anyone out there who can both lead us and keep themselves from getting their hands stuck in the cookie jar.
Actually I see an even bigger irony out of this.
For all the quaintly amusing focus we put on the who’s and what’s of the Philippine Presidency, we are a people who are apparently AVERSE to being led.
When someone steps up to do the job, he/she rapidly gets pulled down by the ankles.
When someone tables an out-of-the-square idea, he/she gets evaluated on his/her hairstyle rather than on the merit of the idea tabled.
An amusing people in an amusement park of a country.
benign0,
That’s what happens when you have a country whose leadership is composed of a big bunch of bullies, all with serious psychological issues.
Gloria’s “leadership”, “resolve”, and legendary temper has always come across to me as some manifestation of her small-man complex.
jon, my suggestion is let’s elect leaders who can lead, and when he/she gets caught with his/her sticky fingers in the cookie jar, by God, let’s punish her after due process of the law. however, we should condemn with evidence, not wild imaginations.
btw, i can see how and why any president can have “legendary temper” in the philippines.
I agree with the temper bit. Stupidity has been known to have that effect on people. And if you are surrounded by a people collectively (not necessarily individually) known for less-than-critical thinking faculties, well, just go figure…
You either aspire to be smart and deal with the loneliness of being smart, or stoop down to stupidity and enjoy a lifetime of fiesta.
Pinoys it seems had made a choice in this regard.
Atty. Ben,
You hit it. “We need a president who can leadc us.”
But pray may |I ASK, where is THIS president leading us to? The last pied piper i read about led to constituents to crown. Is OUR Pied Piper, a.k.a GMA leading us into the quicksand of penury, partition, and perdition, sir Ben?
In herr last 20 months in office, Filipino would like nothing more than to be proven wrong in their estimation of their president. no shame there. everything to gain.
That is the challenge for GMA.
I will gladly join the applause.
Ding, you just highlighted another fundamental challenge that faces our society — coming up with a direction (at least) or a VISION (at best) for where we are headed and what we want to be.
It’s one thing to have a good leader, it’s another to be a society that is collectively cluey enough to know what it wants for itself.
How do a people hold their democratically-elected leaders to account if they themselves have no idea of what to expect?
ding, most of the solutions to philippine problems don’t bear fruit overnight. poverty, hunger, disease, criminality, public and private corruptions, rebellions, election anomalies, social polarization, environmental degradations, economic malaise and underproduction, etc., etc., have been with us since the beginning of our statehood. let gma be judged by future generations, not this one whose only gauge, for the most part, is it’s own subjective perceptions.
one thing is certain: gma is not a messiah.
This is where this whole thing about personal accountability comes in. How many more presidents need to come and go before we realise that poverty and everything else that makes the Philippines as pathetic as it is today has roots that run deeper than the influence exerted by the President or any other politician for that matter.
There is no messiah. At the end of the day it is up to each person to play the cards dealt them.
Maybe some hands are just so bad that you just have to fold. But no “messiah” can change them. The only thing one can do is play them to the best of their abilities.
[…] (b) there is no known correlation that exists that ties Pinoy fortunes with that of a sitting president; […]
[…] to the Republic” battlecry of yours in perspective, Abe, by re-visiting my piece “Who cares if Gloria is president after 2010?” where I issue this challenge: Is there some kind of evidence or at least some kind of […]