The Perfect Storm

Written on Wednesday, June 4th, 2008 at 2:33 pm | by Patricio Mangubat

There are five things which threaten the very existence of the Philippine state today.

First, the spiraling costs of food. Inability of people to buy food lead to great sociological anxieties which, if left unchecked, could result to more people resorting to violent means to resolve hunger. The rise of property-related petty crimes have shoot up, indicating there’s some attempts by people to release pent-up frustrations on their inability to resolve food-related costs.
Second, the economic uncertainties caused by global oil prices. Oil prices are skyrocketing to a level which more and more people are beginning to find very challenging.

Third, the brewing revolt in Mindanao. Hunger is beginning to affect even the more prosperous provinces in the region. The peace process has stalled. A steady trend of violence is beginning to unfold there. An uncanny alliance between the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) and a revitalized Abu Sayyaf has been reported. This indicates possible war preparations or an anticipation of an outbreak of hostilities between the Bangsamoro armies and the Philippine security agencies. A visit of the chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff is proof enough that the situation there is getting volatile. If Mindanao suddenly turns into a flashpoint of Islamic militancy, then, as I wrote in NewPhilRevolution.blogspot.com, this could spillover to the entire ASEAN and affect regional security.

Fourth, decreasing foreign investments. There’s a slowdown of foreign investments due largely with government’s perceived attempt to intervene in private enterprises, such as Meralco. And the subtle effects of government graft and corruption.

Fifth, a rise in the undercurrent of dissent within Philippine security agencies. The security adviser will definitely not admit it, but more and more soldiers and policemen are grumbling due to unprofessionalism among the ranks and decreasing benefits promised by this administration.

All of these things are happening simultaneously. These events will definitely come to a convergence possibly in the middle of June or early July. By then, if there’s no social unrest or outbreak of dissent, government will find it quite impossible even to resolve this rising social tensions caused by its ineptitude in resolving structural problems.

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About The Author: Patricio Mangubat is a pseudonym. It means "country fight". Yet, the one behind this name is real. He can be briefly described as a long-time activist as well as a communication strategist. He blogs at The New Philippine Revolution.

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Comments

12 Responses to “The Perfect Storm”

  1. moya on June 4th, 2008 4:06 pm

    What does this mean? Another Coup?

    Edsa IV, A New Hope

    to be followed by

    Edsa V, Erap Strikes Back

    and finally,

    Edsa VI, The Return of GMA!

  2. Jon Limjap on June 4th, 2008 4:15 pm

    I’ve been hearing this from revolutionistas since 1986.

    It’s like the end of the world. I’m still waiting.

  3. benign0 on June 4th, 2008 4:49 pm

    The Philippines seems destined for a slow painful decline and these are the five ingredients for it.

    Nature and economics will do what mediocre Pinoy “revolutionaries” failed to do in the last several decades.

  4. [splice] on June 4th, 2008 7:32 pm

    It’s as if we’ll survive all these by just sitting our asses down. But what can one say? Some people are wont to tell that we can’t do anything. We’re powerless anyway, so let’s return to our caves and rot.

  5. Patricio Mangubat on June 5th, 2008 6:05 am

    No one is powerless splice. and probably, this is no revolution. we would probably see a series of social movements, hopefully, not violent ones.

  6. [splice] on June 5th, 2008 7:32 am

    @Patricio

    Touche! That’s the irony I tried to imply in my previous comment.

  7. [splice] on June 5th, 2008 7:40 am

    P. S. (sorry for the double post)

    We’re not entirely powerless yet when thrown in the midst of these “storms”, there’s that temptation to hide our tail between our legs and, worse comes to worst, flee from all of these.

  8. Manuel L. Quezon III: The Daily Dose » Blog Archive » Form or substance on June 5th, 2008 7:44 am

    […] Patricio Mangubat says a “perfect storm” (food and oil price increases; brewing conflict in Mindanao; skittish investors due to the Garcia gambit; and escalating grumbling in the armed forces) is brewing. My column for today, Eight is enough , proposes the President simply quit while she’s ahead. Of course she won’t -but it will be interesting to see if the combination of populist stunts and sending the administration senatorial slate on the stump can be maneuvered into providing the pretext for saying the public is clamoring for an extension of the incumbent’s term. To, say, 2020? […]

  9. leytenian on June 5th, 2008 10:10 am

    “government will find it quite impossible even to resolve this rising social tensions caused by its ineptitude in resolving structural problems”

    great blog

  10. Pochero on June 5th, 2008 4:22 pm

    Or it can all be triggered by a natural calamity. Nature’s own “perfect storm”.

  11. PSImeon on June 5th, 2008 8:59 pm

    The excitement over the 2010 elections is in the air. People are looking forward to the political exercise and the money that will eventually flow, for the businessmen, PR agencies, TV and radio stations, printing presses, campaigners. Even the poor people.

    This is RP’s version of representative democracy, even if its an imperfect strum.

  12. Patricio Mangubat on June 6th, 2008 6:35 am

    Yes, Pochero. The combination of both human and natural calamities are beginning to take its toll on the Philippine superstructure.

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