The July 18 Earthquake Prediction Is A Political Gimmick

Written on Friday, July 11th, 2008 at 4:55 am | by Patricio Mangubat

Why the 8 magnitude earthquake prediction in RP is a fake? And why do people believe it?

First, the author of the email has impeccable timing. It was sent right after a 7.2 magnitude quake in Japan which killed 13 people. Previous to this, a 7.9 magnitude quake killed thousands in China and rendered thousands more homeless.

Here, we are experiencing between 4 to 5.3 magnitude quakes, almost everyday since last week. Being proximate to both China and Japan, people would definitely make a connexion. If a quake hit our neighbours, the possibility of being hit ourselves by a similarly strong or stronger earthquake is there, since we’re also one of those countries located in the Pacific ring of fire.

This fatalistic thinking is being compounded by our recent experience with Typhoon Frank, which left thousands of people dead and rendered thousands more homeless. Scenes of devastation of the China and japan quake plus the Typhoon Frank disaster still resonate in our minds. And of course, we’re experiencing weekly personal financial tremors what with rising oil and food process. Millions of people are feeling panicky and uncertain about the future. Many people are feeling insecure. Those deathly scenes on primetime news are not helping people cope with both natural and man-made disasters.

Obviously, the prediction is a fake (see http://pinoyobserver.wordpress.com). It’s an invention. But why choose an earthquake as an event to happen in this date, July 18?

Obviously, the authors of this email chose that date because it’s similar with the date of the 8 magnitude quake which rocked San Francisco California way back in 1906—April 18. Of course, they adjusted it to July 18 so that its more recent and we’ll feel threatened and vulnerable.

The purpose of this fakery? Well, its quite nasty and a little criminal. Obviously, they want to add fuel to the confusion and feeling of insecurity of Filipinos. They are feeding the fear of people. But why? Why do this?

July 18 happens to be ten (10) days before the State of the Nation address of Philippine president Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo. By creating a scenario of fear, people will approach this SONA with utter trepidation and uncertainty. Nonetheless, it can work in both ways.

A fearful nation come July 28 could be exploited by Gloria to introduce self-serving suggestions such as the Noah’s Ark proposal or a cha-cha? Surely, no one would question this since it could be perceived as a bitter pill to swallow. People would even, probably praise Gloria for rising up to the occasion.

Or, it could be that the people are so heated up at that time that they support a revolt leading to the eventual ouster of Gloria from Malacanang.

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About The Author: Patricio Mangubat is a pseudonym. It means "country fight". Yet, the one behind this name is real. He can be briefly described as a long-time activist as well as a communication strategist. He blogs at The New Philippine Revolution.

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17 Responses to “The July 18 Earthquake Prediction Is A Political Gimmick”

  1. Jon Limjap on July 11th, 2008 6:22 am

    The July 18 Earthquake Prediction was produced and consumed by stupid students who slept through their Earth Science classes.

    Anybody who accuses that the whole issue is a political gimmick is, himself, politicking.

  2. Little Earthquakes « smoke on July 11th, 2008 9:18 am

    […] Posted on 11 July 2008 by rom Patricio Mangubat, over at Filipino Voices, writes about how the July 18 earthquake prediction is actually a political tool - a way of […]

  3. redpill on July 12th, 2008 3:30 am

    nobody can predict earthquakes… this is stupid…

    what’s the Noah’s Ark proposal?

  4. Lee Angelo on July 13th, 2008 7:54 pm

    I have to agree with redpill, “nobody can predict earthquakes.” I received that similar mail, then another mail from an old friend who told me to verify if it was true. I told him that this is similar to the second coming, you know that it’s near but you definitely won’t know the exact day.

    As to it being a political gimmick, I can’t really say..maybe, a long-shot. All I know is that Malacañan will do everything to have its wishes come true.

  5. camiLLe on July 14th, 2008 5:49 pm

    its not true……………………..only god knows our future

  6. Anna on July 15th, 2008 9:45 am

    The prediction is moot and academic. I think it’s a matter of knowing the physics around you. You know for a fact (or do you even know?) that the Philippines is an earthquake prone area (pacific ring of fire, Philippine sea plate, etc.), then it is only logical for you to ensure you own protection. Take every precautionary measure from knowing the hazards and safety points of your house/work building to actually owning a basic survival kit of torch and first aid kit. I think people who panic are either those with an archaic view of what an earthquake is or those who aren’t ensured of the needed protection. So… you just have to take it as a fact that earthquakes do happen. Overcome that fear by protecting yourself from it. (And that doesn’t mean crawl under a desk, c’mon that’s elementary education; unless you are a ten year old reading my comment now). Search the net and read books to know what to do before, during and after an earthquake.

  7. bobby on July 15th, 2008 8:39 pm

    Again this is another viral marketing started by whoever that person is. its effective! But where is ethics in that campaign?! from a campaign who wants to start chaos and fear for Filipinos? in exchange for high traffic and clicks for your keyword!?

    I strongly condemn it!

  8. hisuka on July 16th, 2008 7:25 pm

    yeah.. maybe this is false… but anything could be true… if this is a gimmick, then karma on them who made this hoax-if so.. if it is true, then they
    should be wrong.. but the only logic is this

    If Japan was struck, China,—>which are asian countries then most probably we will too.. adding to that.. if south east asia fault moves(ring of fire) , every fault line vibrates… but d only thing is that it is an exact prediction–>false > true

  9. simonalajero on July 16th, 2008 11:18 pm

    during the old days,earthquakes and disasters are mostly predicted.hey,even the great flood during Noah’s time was also prophecied.(nobody believed it,except noah,right).all i’m saying is predictions…prophecies are true.the people that are making them…that we can’t be certain.
    well,better safe than sorry.what’s one day out of the office,big deal!

  10. gaylord on July 17th, 2008 7:38 am

    asa

  11. jayann26 on July 17th, 2008 6:49 pm

    its nothing….beliv in god…we will be fine…

  12. carmela on July 17th, 2008 9:30 pm

    stupid person do stupid things…just like this man!

  13. jc on July 17th, 2008 9:38 pm

    we should be in allert even without earthquake

  14. Paul E. Tical on July 18th, 2008 7:32 am

    Yeah, right. Everythings a conspiracy contrived be the Arroyo Government. Arroyo made the MV Princess of the Stars sink to distract people from national issues. That’s why she was out of the country. She influenced PAGASA to give the wrong forecast on the actual path of the storm. She’s also behind the rising oil prices and commodities. She’s that good. Oh, and she was behind the World Trade Center bombing.

  15. Rich on July 19th, 2008 11:20 am

    Well there was an earthquake in Japan today the 18th, weird prediction

  16. Androme-MU Phils-Bhar on July 21st, 2008 8:43 am

    WTF! How pathetic are people who scattered those f*ckin’ gossips!!!!!

  17. JW on September 16th, 2008 12:29 am

    CHECK OUT THIS COMING OCTOBER OF THIS YEAR

    (camiLLe: He does tell it to those that hear)

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