Faulty Weather Pronouncements of PAGASA

17 Responses to “Faulty Weather Pronouncements of PAGASA”

1. ron speers on June 22nd, 2008 7:29 am

   If one goes to Typhoon2000 and clicks on storm-track #6 he will get 5 forecast storm-tracks on one chart.

2. Pochero on June 22nd, 2008 12:55 pm

   The Joint Typhoon Warning Center is the best for forecasting storm tracks. For day-to-day weather, mas maganda pa sa CNN site. If you want to know the time of sunrise and sunset, Pagasa is the best!

3. mark on June 22nd, 2008 12:56 pm

   Its reported in aljazeera that 17 lives were lost due to landslides brought by typhoon Frank. Also, Gov. Salceda of Albay bewailed the erroneous forecasting of PAGASA which made them to spend for the earlier evacuation of his constituents.
   But those in other provinces (Panay and Negros) which relied earlier in PAGASA’s prediction that the typhoon will not pass said provinces and were unprepared bear the brunt.
   I’m wondering how PAGASA able to arrive at its forecast? Could it be just plucked out from the ceiling of their office? Too unfortunate for our countrymen losing their lives, property and livelihood due to one government agency’s faulty work. When will PAGASA ever become responsible and accountable for its erroneous weather forecast?

4. Nins on June 22nd, 2008 1:41 pm

   I’ve just read at abscbn news online regarding the capsize of Sulpicio Lines MV Princess of the Stars off Romblon with 4 dead and 700 more missing. Its saddening that so many lives were lost again - something is really wrong with PAGASA’s weather forecast as cited by above article. Its a recurring tragic disaster causing loss of so many lives lost at sea due to typhoon yet no solutions were made. It will be another fingerpointing, the last being pointed to those ships, vessels and passengers who died or suffered. PAGASA wake up!

5. 101 Sons and Daughters « smoke on June 23rd, 2008 12:04 am

   […] at Filipino Voices, at least some responsibility seems to fall at the PAG-ASA doorstep. Now i understand that the weather is unpredictable - I learned that much from the Sound […]

6. Manuel L. Quezon III: The Daily Dose » Blog Archive » Junket of Doom on June 23rd, 2008 1:58 pm

   […] off a lot of people. And at first, this was the main bone of contention concerning the typhoon. See Faulty Weather Pronouncements of PAGASA, which I mentioned in my column. The Inquirer’s front page today shows PAGASA’s path […]

7. cvj on June 24th, 2008 2:11 am

   As per a link provided by a commenter at Manolo’s blog, it looks like the United States’ JWTC was the first one who erroneously forecasted that Fengshen (Frank) was not going to hit land.

8. mabini on June 24th, 2008 3:47 pm

   Could the mishap be avoided?

   I checked the previous US JTWC’s warnings on Typhoon Fengshen (Frank) beginning on June 19 to 21, 2008 from U.S. Navy’s website (http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_bin/tc_home2):

   June 19, 2008 (1800) - Warning 6 (wp072008.08061918) - The typhoon will hit Eastern Samar on June 20 at 6 am then it will move north and exit Catanduanes (June 21) back to Philippine Sea/Pacific Ocean.
   June 20, 2008 (0000) - Warning 7 (wp072008.0806200) - Typhoon path is the same as Warning 6.
   June 20, 2008 (0600) - Warning 8 (wp072008.08062000) - JTWC has made a significant change in their prediction of the path of the typhoon. It will now traverse Samar Island then to Masbate, Marinduque on June 20-21 and to Quezon Province by June 21 (6 pm) and Metro Manila and Central Luzon. Maximum wave height 20 ft and wind of 75kts to 90 kts.
   June 20, 2008 (1200) - Warning 9 (wp072008.08062006) – After landfall in Samar island, the subsequent path of the typhoon was adjusted. The typhoon will be at Masbate by June 20 (12 noon) then the vicinity of Romblon/Marinduque on June 21 (00 am) passing Batangas (12 noon) and Metro Manila by June 22 (00). Maximum wave height 18 ft and wind of 80 kts to 105 kts.
   (Note: wp (number) indicates the “.gif” file of the JTWC Warning)

   JTWC issued their warning every 6 hours with their subsequent warnings (June 20, 2008 (1800) - Warning 10 (wp072008.08062012); June 21, 2008 (0000) - Warning 11 (wp072008.0806210); June 21, 2008 (0600) - Warning 12 (wp072008.08062100)) being significant also to forewarn PAGASA, Coast Guard, Sulpicio Lines and Marina of the typhoon’s path. Accessing hourly the websites of other weather stations like JTWC (US), JMA (Japan), etc. to know of their weather forecast should have been part of the protocol of our government agencies regulating maritime and shipping and also by shipping companies rather than relying solely on PAGASA.

9. anne on June 24th, 2008 4:23 pm

   http://www.accuweather.com/mt-news-blogs.asp?blog=community&pgUrl=/mtweb/content/weathermatrix/archives/2008/06/phillipines_typhoon_anatomy_of_a_forecast_bust.asp

   Friday, June 20, 2008 12:12 PM
   Philippines Typhoon: Anatomy of a Forecast Bust

   There was (what some in the media may refer to as) a spectacularly inaccurate forecast this week from the Computer Forecast Models [JessePedia], and that was that Typhoon Fengshen (Frank) would miss the Philippines.

   On Wednesday at 5 PM, we issued this map in an electronic press release and (I assume) on AccuWeather.com as a Weather Headlines (PREMIUM | PRO):

   The press release stated:

   This storm is in its initial stages but has a chance to become a typhoon over the weekend. The future track of the storm will take it away from the Philippines.

   This was all based on what is generally referred to as the “Navy” or “JTWC (Joint Typhoon Warning Center” forecast, which (I think) usually does a good job forecaster international hurricanes, and which we would normally have no reason to not believe. Their map at 7 PM Wednesday still looked like this (presumably* it was further east before that).

   SO HOW FAR OFF WAS THE FORECAST?

   Who among us knows the geography of the Philippines as much as the hurricane-prone regions of the United States. Certainly I do not. So I used Google Earth to help me find out. The Wednesday evening forecast appeared to be off by about 4 degrees of longitude.

   Comparing the Philippines to Florida, that would be the equivalent of placing the storm well off the coast, versus onshore 36 hours in advance (or placing it in the Gulf vs. in the Atlantic at a particular time).

   I don’t recall off the top of my head how many U.S. hurricane forecasts have been that far off 36 hours in the future, but I’m sure it has happened. Probably not a lot - although models bounce hurricanes around quite a bit in the long-range forecasts, they usually have it more or less pinned down by 36 hours out (which is good because evacuations can take that long). It’s possible that the lack of high-resolution models in the Pacific led to this bad forecast. It’s also possible that the JTWC forecast favored a particular model, such as the GFS, or their own Navy model (the NOGAPS) and they stuck with it until the bitter end (both were still forecasting non-landfalls yesterday morning, click here to download movies of their forecasts from 12Z yesterday and 00Z today).

   WHY WAS THE FORECAST SO FAR OFF?

   Because I don’t forecast for that part of the Earth, I don’t have any specific insights as to what went wrong here. But as I’ve said before, hurricane/typhoon prediction (and really, the prediction of any low pressure system) depends on how it gets caught in between the cogs (circulations) of other high and low pressure systems. If one of those is weaker or stronger than the models thought, it can make a big difference in the track of the storm (ever seen “Plinko” on the Price Is Right? Try that, but have the size of the pegs dynamically change.)

   WHAT DO YOU THINK?

   Is this a huge bust or normal forecast variability? Would the forecast have been better with better models? Should the Navy have acted faster on the westward model swing? Should we have been more independent from their forecast? Post a Comment below to let me know. I hope you appreciate me bringing this forecast error into the light and not trying to hide it — and I’m not blaming the Navy, they were using the same models that we all have.

10. alan on June 25th, 2008 3:10 am

    I have complained regular over the past 3 years as to Pagasa’s incorrect weather forecasts, and all i get from them is “we are doing what we can” needless to say its not enough. As they, Pagasa, make incorrect forecasts its costs lives and as we can see this time by the sinking of a passenger boat and the loss of so many lives and so many children to, plus the damage done to many areas by their weather forecasts which do not coincide with other and more accurate weather forecasting. Why can they not join forces with other more accurate systems around the Western Pacific? Shame on you Pagasa.

11. cvj on June 25th, 2008 3:16 am

    As Anne has pointed out above (at 4:23 pm), ‘joining forces‘ with the ‘other more accurate systems around the Western Pacific‘ would not have helped because they also made a mistake in forecasting Frank’s path.

12. Jon Limjap on June 25th, 2008 12:45 pm

    Nobody ever figures out that weather forecasting is not an exact science. Even the most powerful supercomputers to date cannot predict the precise path of a typhoon, an irony considering one of the underlying reasons why the ENIAC was commissioned in the 1940s was for weather prediction.

    It’s simply not possible.

    And even the most advanced country in the world wasn’t able to do much about Hurricane Katrina. And was widely off mark in evacuating almost the whole of Texas when Hurricane Melissa(IIRC) struck two weeks later.

    In the end, nobody knows. Everyone could just make projections.

13. alan on June 25th, 2008 1:19 pm

    Typhoon Fengshen may be the deadliest Pacific tropical cyclone since 1991. The death toll in the Philippines now stands at 598 dead or missing on land, with another 800 missing and presumed dead in the wake of the sinking of the ferry MV Princess of Stars. Fengshen (the Mandarin Chinese name for the God of Wind) made landfall over the northern Philippines Saturday, triggering rains and landslides that destroyed 34,000 buildings and damaged 53,000 more, causing an estimated $100 million in damage. According to typhoon2000.com, the Philippines’ deadliest tropical cyclones were Tropical Storm Thelma of 1991 (5101 dead) and Typhoon Ike of 1984 (1363 dead). Left off the list was Tropical Depression Winnie, which killed 1404 people in the Philippines November 29-20, 2004. It appears likely that the death toll from Fengshen will exceed Winnie’s, making Fengshen the deadliest Western Pacific tropical cyclone since 1991’s Tropical Storm Thelma.

    Figure 2.Visible satellite image of Fengshen at 4:55 GMT June 21, 2008, 25 minutes after radio contact was lost with the ferry MV Princess of Stars. The ship had left Manila in the Philippines about 8 hours prior to the accident for the 20 hour trip to Cebu. It appears that the ferry ran into the north eyewall of Fengshen when it was at peak intensity, with sustained winds of 110 mph. Fengshen was headed due west when the ferry set sail (track image, lower left), then made a sudden, poorly forecast turn to the north-northwest as the ferry approached the typhoon. Image credit: NASA.

    courtesy of Dr jeff Masters of “Weather Underground”

14. Joe on June 29th, 2008 3:43 am

    It’s another Tragedy! But the most tragic event
    here is the fingerpointing. People are so immature
    their immediate response is to point a finger.
    During elections, you can seldom hear from candidates what they can do for the country, but
    rather negative insults, informations or remarks against the rival candidate. That’s exactly what’s
    going on here…why can’t we suggest solutions instead of giving remarks that only describes
    what kind of person we are.

    I am convinced that PAGASA is doing their best
    with what they have…Equipments, knowledge &
    training. Why don’t we give morale to PAGASA men
    and women who extends their best beyond their
    capabilities to offer us weather forecast informations we deserve. I think it’s unwise for us to give remarks or jokes against PAGASA
    with our minimal knowledge of Climate changes, weather patterns, Meteorology and many factors affecting typhoon’s changing of path. I’m sure
    there’s a lot of factors involved that is
    transparent to us, who, on the sideline making
    unjustified comments. I’m positive that after
    this incident, there will be a better protocol
    between Weather Stations, Departments, or Bureaus
    in the whole Asia. Shipping Lines, Airports,
    and Coast Guards will give stricter laws. That’s just the way it is, we learn from experience but
    fingerpointing, I would say when you point a finger, look at your three other fingers..they’re
    pointing at you!

    Let’s pray for all the Victims that may God bring them to Eternal Life. To all their families and friends, let’s pray that during this time of sorrow, may he bring understanding, Love and Peace
    in their hearts. To all of us, may we come together as one, may God give us the wisdom,
    strength, and a common goal of bringing our
    country to a safer tomorrow.

15. alan on June 29th, 2008 11:35 am

    solutions are available, its just a question of looking for them and updating,last time this happened didnt the Government advise Pagasa to “Update” their system? So as to reduce the fatalities and damage, give a earlier warning system and more frequent updates of the weather so as to advise the public well in advance of the impending storm…well yes the Government did, and to what success..? Now once more the Government is telling Pagasa to publish more frequent storm advisories….Again….??!!
    will anyone get it right this time…??

    These are not unjustified comments but opinions of how to find the ways and means of saving lives and as we can see by the recent boat disaster someone is not listening.
    ask the families of the lost souls, are they satisfied with the weather predictions and advanced warnings, ask them.

16. Joe on July 2nd, 2008 11:41 am

    When you’re dealing with nature, specially when it comes to weather, you’re like going up the creek without a paddle. People don’t understand how
    difficult it is to forecast the weather and even here in the US, who has the most sophisticated instruments and continuous ability to take pictures
    from numerous geosynchronous weather satellites,
    they still can’t give us the most accurate direction/s
    of hurricanes/storms. That’s why the names of
    typhoons in the Philippines are all female because
    storms in the regio are so erratic and hard to
    forecast.

    The recent tragedy where 800 or so people believed to be dead could be a classic example of ” the boy
    who cried wolf”. It’s a possibility that the Captain
    didn’t believe the warning from PAGASA and
    his pride and ego told him to go ahead. We have two ears, let’s use both of ‘em from two directions and not close one and start making judgements.
    Let’s be fair…….

    I have the hearts of the people who lost their love ones but I am not in the position to put a blame on
    someone/or a group of people until I am certain
    who is at fault….

17. dana on July 29th, 2008 4:43 pm

    nasan ang mga name n iba bagyo
    indi naman totoo ang aerthquakes
    indi nyo naman inaayos ang report nyo alam nyo b n takot kmi s pag blita nyo

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