Destruction and Death, By the Numbers

Written on Sunday, July 13th, 2008 at 1:32 pm | by The Jester-in-Exile

After downloading the Inquirer study on Sulpicio Lines’ ships, I’ve decided to play around with the numbers and see what we can glean from the study. Note, folks, that the study is based on data gathered between 1980 to 2008. Note that the calculations are based on Inquirer.net’s data.

The calculations result in a gruesome picture. No self-respecting quality assurance engineer would want to associate himself with Sulpicio Lines’ performance — hell, any self-respecting engineer would want to keep Sulpicio Lines as far as he can from his signature as possible. I wonder about the lawyers, though. (Hmph, that would have been an ironic jest, but the subject is far too serious for anything but gallows humor.)

Take a quick look at the mathematics of Sulpicio Lines, folks.

Sulpicio Lines has had 45 incidents in the past 28 years. Thus, Sulpicio Lines has had an average of 1.6 incidents per year in the past 28 years. That’s about an incident every eight months.

Out of the 45 incidents reported, 27 are multiple incidents and the multiple incidents involve 10 ships. Therefore, repeatability is about 60%, and the average recidivism rate is 17%.

FILIPINA PRINCESS - 4 incidents

COTABATO PRINCESS - 3 incidents
DIPOLOG PRINCESS - 3 incidents
PALAWAN PRINCESS - 3 incidents
PHILIPPINE PRINCESS - 3 incidents
PRINCESS OF THE OCEAN - 3 incidents

ILOILO PRINCESS - 2 incidents
PRINCESS OF PARADISE - 2 incidents
PRINCESS OF THE ORIENT - 2 incidents
TACLOBAN PRINCESS - 2 incidents

The mean time between incident for these multiple incident-ships is about three years. The shortest time between incidents was reported for that for the Princess of Paradise, having had an incident last September and December 2007 (just about three months between).

Three of these multiple-incident ships ended up to be total losses (Philippine Princess in 1997, Princess of the Orient in 1998, and Iloilo Princess in 2003).

Sulpicio Lines has had 12 “total loss” incidents in the past 28 years, making the average one “total loss” incident every 2.5 years. The ratio between the number of ships lost and total number of incidents is 27% (12/45, including the Princess of the Stars).

Sulpicio Lines has had 5 incidents known to have casualties in the past 28 years, making the average one known incident involving casualties every 5.5 years for the past 28 years. The ratio between the number of incidents known to have had casualties and the total number of incidents is 11.11% (5/45, including the Princess of the Stars). The worst of them all, which is the Doña Paz incident, is considered the world’s worst peacetime maritime disaster.

Now, granting that Sulpicio Lines apparently services 40% of our maritime traffic, if the quality of service that Sulpicio Lines remains in place, the probability that more of these events will continue is high. We should expect more destruction and death if Sulpicio Lines isn’t sunk for good.

Do the math, folks. What’s a couple hundred thousand for every casualty, for every five years, if a company makes billions every year? ‘Nuff said.

See, now I wonder why you folks aren’t angry enough.

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About The Author: The Jester-in-Exile is an engineer by training and profession turned law student, and he writes of the Philippines because of his love for it. He blogs at The Journal of The Jester-in-Exile, and can often be found daydreaming about giving Robespierre haircuts to corrupt officials.

Filed Under Business and Economy, National News

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Comments

9 Responses to “Destruction and Death, By the Numbers”

  1. cvj on July 13th, 2008 4:48 pm

    Given the above track record, would it then make sense to make travel insurance for the passengers mandatory (if it’s not yet) so that the true costs of sea travel which takes into account its risk is reflected?

    The passengers could be made to pay portion of the premium equivalent to the industry standard safety record while the shipping company will have to pay the portion added because of its own poor safety record. Definitely, the payout should be much more the 200K Pesos, imho should be at least 3Million pesos per person.

  2. stoxbnx3 on July 13th, 2008 5:49 pm

    given the above track record, sulpicio lines should be banned forever.

  3. cvj on July 13th, 2008 6:05 pm

    I agree, but i’m just exploring a way by which market forces can help bring about such an outcome by making it too expensive to ride Sulpicio, because the insurance premiums would be too expensive.

  4. Nick on July 13th, 2008 11:19 pm

    In the case of my cousin, P10 million is his lost wages assuming he worked another 10 years…

  5. Juan on July 14th, 2008 1:38 am

    serial killer and mass murderer. sulpicio is not worried for as long as there’s an insurance company willing to cover all its accidents. insurance companies should reconsider dealing with them. since we’re talking numbers, just like loren legarda, for as long as she’s willing to talk with and pay ransom to abus she’ll continue to score another “successful negotiation”.

  6. cvj on July 14th, 2008 3:15 am

    Clearly, any insurance premiums paid did not reflect the real risks of travelling with Sulpicio. Shouldn’t the insurance companies have properly appraised the risks of travelling with Sulpicio given its continuous string of accidents as explained by Jester-in-exile above?

  7. The Jester-in-Exile on July 14th, 2008 7:51 am

    with the data above, even without the testimony of witnesses, i think it can be argued there is a pattern to their poor safety record — a series and combination of events demonstrating how SLI as a company has not had a policy of exercising extraordinary diligence required of common carriers.

    it seems to me that this is the fatal flaw that makes them liable under the civil code.

    of course, the longer it takes to wrap up the hearings and the trials, the more likely will the families of victims agree to a settlement — one that sulpicio lines will emphasize is “not an admission of guilt or liability.”

  8. Sulpicio Lines, Don’t Forget Accountability | Filipino Voices on July 15th, 2008 7:51 pm

    […] any case, even the recent article by Jester-in-Exile, that referred to the research that was done by Inquirer, in which it was found that Sulpicio Lines […]

  9. A collective inability to harvest INSIGHT from our own history | Filipino Voices on July 16th, 2008 9:02 am

    […] was referring to the Lloyd’s report of how Sulpicio has figured in no less than 45 accidents since 1980. Indeed, our politicians […]

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